Boeing 787-10 or 777-8x: decision Likely This Year

A potential double-stretched 787-10 variant depends more on what Boeing decides to do with the 777 more than anything else.

Not for the first time, talk about a double-stretched 787 has entered the fray only this time, Boeing’s decision to establish a dedicated development team for the 777 puts the decision making into a rather grey area. Some of this is compounded by the ever-growing uncertainty over the rival Airbus A350-1000, which thus far is failing to make the grade on paper (or sales) against the 777-300ER.

There is equally the possibility that Boeing could do both moves and squeeze the big Airbus jet – it is a poor selling model in contrast to other 777, A350 and 787 variants. For whatever its worth, there’s more chance of a 787-10 and/or enhanced 777 emerging than there is of a so-called 150 seat CSeries.

Boeing hopes to make a decision this year on the 787-10 and aims to ensure that this larger-capacity 787 avoids cannibalizing sales of the 777, another family of Boeing aircraft that also may be getting new models, the 777-8X and 777-9X. While the 777 looks more than likely to benefit from a revamp rather than a full overhaul, this is paced more with the fact that the larger A350-1000 is still undefined and program sources attribute significant issues with the baseline A350-900 that have to be ironed out first before a stretch can happen, much less meet the advertised specifications Airbus has listed. 

Boeing is loathe to grow the 787 into 777 territory – a stretch too far, and you end up with a useless airplane like the A340-600 which trades passengers and payload for range and is saddled with higher costs.

A second stretch of the 787 would also raise engine thrust issues, affecting performance. As Boeing studies its options with 777, the company feels that a lower cost approach to improving that would be far more beneficial to countering the perceived angst any A350-1000 could cause.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh said, “We will do the 787-10 by all likelihood. We’re now working through design concepts. Assuming the customer interest is there, later this year [a decision will be made], and we will have something to offer toward the end of the year.” He says the 787-10 will have a shorter range than the -9 but will be able to carry 40 more passengers, so “the economics are very good.”

The fact that the 787-10 is a stretch of the 787-9 means it will be in the realm of the 777 in terms of seating capacity. Albaugh, however, suggests otherwise. “We think we’ve got a good separation between the models. There’s 15% separation between the models. We’ve spread the sizing between them, so we don’t cannibalize any one aircraft.”

There have been some reports about a 777-8LX model, which promises more range, but Albaugh is dismissive. “I’ve seen something on a chart mentioning that, but I am focused on the 777-9X and 777-8X,” he says, referring to the new stretched version of the 777-300ER and 777-200, respectively. Albaugh was speaking to Aviation Week in Singapore yesterday during a media roundtable.

He says the 777-8X and 777-9X are hugely important to the company. Boeing sold 200 777s last year, and the aircraft is unbeatable in terms of efficiency, asserts Albaugh. But he also says Boeing is mindful of the fact that Airbus is planning the A350-1000, and declines to disclose details on the 777-9X, except to say “it will be a significant improvement over the 777-300ER.”

As for the 737 MAX, Albaugh says, “I hope we can have a couple of thousand orders before we deliver the first aircraft.” Boeing already has secured firm orders for the 737-8 and 737-9. Albaugh says it also has secured a 737-7 customer, but has yet to disclose who that is.

Albaugh declines to say when the 737 MAX specifications will be locked, but asserts they are already effectively firmed up because Boeing is giving MAX customers guarantees when it comes to the specs. He also says, “I don’t want to over-promise and under-deliver. I want to ensure that it is on spec and delivered on time.” Boeing has learned from the lessons of the 787 program, he adds.

Boeing has started delivering 787-8s, but has had to do some post-production fixes to the aircraft in response to concerns about delamination.